Welcome to the Roaring 2020s: An Economic Outlook from Michael Knight

Michael Knight’s November 2021 article, “The U.S. Economic Outlook and the Future of the Roaring 2020s,” promoted a sense of optimism and need for critical restructuring through the upcoming decade. Knight, President of Exponential Technology Group (XTG) and SVP Corporate Business Development at TTI, Inc., noted that despite facing the global hardship of COVID-19 in the beginning of 2020, the electronics industry was back to quarterly progression by the third quarter. By the end of 2020, trends were so promising that it was clear the U.S. economy was on the brink of full-blown economic recovery.

Knight also notes that the consistent stream of demand for tech and electronics is keeping the industry afloat in the face of the on-going pandemic, extreme weather conditions, rampant supply chain disruptions, and a global trade war. While Knight is confident that this strong demand should persist throughout this decade, he also remarks that the industry has some significant headwinds to also contend with. Knight is concerned that the nation’s debt accumulation in the wake of economic damage caused by the pandemic may ultimately knock us backwards for a time. He notes that in the short-term, economists like those at ITR Economics are optimistic that debt service burden on the economy is very manageable in the current low-interest environment. However, near zero interests won’t last forever and any sustained inflation will have long-term ramifications.

Knight also predicts that current supply chain disruptions in the electronic industry will persist through next year, especially for legacy semiconductors and other electronic components. He makes the case that the industry can’t fully climb out of the current supply chain morass using historical tactics and planning. In much of what Knight has recently been publishing, posting, and podcasting he talks about the disconnects between the exponential nature of technology advancement and the linear, cost-optimized nature of current supply chain design. With these things properly synchronized, he believes that the surge that the electronics industry has experienced this year is sustainable for the rest of this decade.

Resources:

• Video - The 'Perfect Storm' in Semiconductor's Supply Chains
• The Supply Chain Fix Starts With Fixing How We View The Future
• The Impact of Chip Shortages on the Electronics Industry
• The U.S. Economic Outlook and the Future of the Roaring 2020s
• Video - Michael Knight comments, Excerpted from the TTI Executive Briefing, August 2021

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